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Economics

the claim it refuses to make, what v0.1 controls without measuring, where the cost actually is, what the ledger alone can measure, and what honest measurement would take

Rendered from docs/ECONOMICS.md — the same Markdown GitHub shows.

Short, because v0.1 measures nothing and says so.

The claim we refuse to make

Majordomus does not reduce token spend by any percentage. No benchmark exists, so no number appears anywhere in this repository. Every routing document studied while designing this tool carried figures like "35 % better" with no measurement behind them, and every one of those figures was later found to be invented.

What v0.1 controls without measuring

The policy and profiles fix four things that, in the environments studied, were the main sources of waste:

LeverWaste it addressesHow v0.1 handles it
always-loaded budgetevery session re-reading a 1,000-line contracthard line cap, doctor fails over it
profile effortmaximum reasoning as the defaulteffort is a profile field; escalation is a recorded event, not a habit
profile verbositynarrating every intermediate stepverbosity and presentation are profile fields, separate from effort
scope and finish contractduplicated and abandoned workone task per checkout, overlap reported, finish refuses unverified completion

These are declared controls. Their effect is not measured by v0.1.

Where the cost actually is

Token cost per task is a sum, and most optimisation effort goes to its smallest term:

total tokens per task
  = context loaded per session
  + the same context loaded again in the next session
  + reasoning
  + output
  + retries and rework
  + a second worker doing the same investigation

"Write shorter answers" trims the fourth term. A worker that first read a repository's worth of context it did not need has already spent more than every answer it will write. Majordomus targets the terms in this order, by expected size: context per session (profile toggles, the always-loaded budget), repeated context (durable state and handovers instead of transcripts), retries (a finish contract that refuses before a human has to), duplicated parallel work (scope claims and overlap reports), reasoning profile discipline, and output verbosity last.

No percentage is attached to any of this. None has been measured, so none is claimed; the sections above and below say what measuring would take. A team that already runs short sessions, selects context deliberately, hands over well and scopes work explicitly will save little, and for them the value is standardisation, reproducibility and auditability rather than cost.

What can be measured today, from the ledger alone

Without any provider telemetry, state/ledger.jsonl already yields per task:

metricfrom
sessions per tasktask.started, task.handed_over, task.finished sharing a task_id
wall-clock timestarted_at on the record to the task.finished timestamp
handover overheadhandover files naming the task
workers involveddistinct owner values across a task's records
verification runsthe verify object on task.finished

Not yet: refused finishes (a refusal writes nothing, by contract; recording it is a contract change under review), and anything counted in tokens.

What would have to be true to measure

The unit that matters is cost per accepted outcome, not tokens. To compute it, each task.finished ledger record would need, from the provider:

  • input, output, and cached tokens for the session
  • model and effort actually used
  • elapsed time and tool-call count

and, from the person: whether the outcome was accepted, and whether rework followed.

The ledger already records the task, profile, outcome, contract result, and verification command with its exit code and duration. The provider-side fields are the missing half. v0.3 in the roadmap adds them only for providers that expose them honestly; any estimated_ field stays out of enforcement and out of comparisons.

The comparison this would enable

The unit is tokens, cost and time per accepted outcome, never per prompt: a debugging task run under the right profile may spend more on one prompt and less on the task, because it needed two sessions instead of three and no retry. Once measured, the question is not "which model uses fewer tokens" but which profile produces the best accepted-outcome rate per unit cost for a task class. That comparison, across a team's real work, is the durable value. Nothing in v0.1 pretends to have it.