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I0403 — Make a thin denominator say so rather than average it away

Make every reported figure carry the number of accepted outcomes it rests on, refuse to present a single observation as an average, and prove both with cases.

BLOCKED wave 2 · p2 · debugging profile · runs alone

Part of cost-per-accepted-outcome — Cost per accepted outcome, only on measured data.

Blocked. This issue cannot start until I0402, milestone:cost-per-accepted-outcome are done. The status is derived from that, not declared.

Objective

Make every reported figure carry the number of accepted outcomes it rests on, refuse to present a single observation as an average, and prove both with cases.

Why

Early on there will be very few accepted outcomes, and a mean over one of them looks exactly like a mean over many. The report has to make the difference impossible to miss.

Current state

The command reports figures from whatever measured, accepted outcomes exist, however few.

Desired state

Each figure states its denominator, and below the threshold the output presents observations rather than a summary statistic.

Scope

  • lib
  • test/cases

Out of scope

  • A confidence interval or any statistical model beyond stating the denominator

Dependencies

What waits on this

Acceptance criteria

  • Every reported figure carries the count of accepted outcomes behind it
  • Below the declared threshold the output presents observations and no average
  • The threshold is declared as data, not written into the code path
  • Cases cover the thin case and the sufficient case

Validation

  • bash test/run.sh

Evidence required

  • suite

Evidence

None recorded. Every token above needs a command or an artifact behind it before this issue can be completed; narrative is refused.

Risk

Any threshold is arbitrary; declaring it as data and printing it beside the figure is what keeps it honest rather than hidden.

Timeline

started
—
verified
—
completed
—

Those three fields, the evidence above and the state of the dependencies are all the status is made of. There is no status field to disagree with them.

Canonical record: .ai/repo/project/issues/I0403.yaml. Read it back with majordomus plan show I0403.