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I3126 — check and finish count the refusals later overridden and the completions later reverted, per rule and per release

From the ledger, derive two rates per rule and per release. Candidate false refusals: a refusal followed by an override, or a later finish of the same task with no relevant change. Candidate false acceptances: a completed finish whose commits are reverted, or whose issue reopens, within a window. Publish both with denominator, window and provenance.

READY wave 0 · p2 · implementation profile · parallel safe

Part of a-claim-stands-only-on-its-evidence — A claim that something is enforced, tested or delivered stands only on recorded evidence that would have caught it being false.

Ready. Every dependency is done, so majordomus plan start I3126 will be accepted.

Objective

From the ledger, derive two rates per rule and per release. Candidate false refusals: a refusal followed by an override, or a later finish of the same task with no relevant change. Candidate false acceptances: a completed finish whose commits are reverted, or whose issue reopens, within a window. Publish both with denominator, window and provenance.

Why

The owner's audits of 2026-10-13 (c256#2) and 2026-10-14 (c262#10) named false refusal as a critical class of bug, because a tool that refuses correct work gets bypassed. The second adopter met a personal-mode bootstrap that update later refused. Neither rate is measured. It extends milestone cost-per-accepted-outcome. Proposed in ADR 0208 (The product's value is stated as the false dones its finish caught, beside the friction it cost) (proposed; it carries no authority until the owner accepts it). Sources: chatgpt-majordomus:c256#2, chatgpt-majordomus:c256#5, chatgpt-majordomus:c262#10.

Current state

The ledger records finish outcomes and refusals. Nothing joins them over time.

Desired state

Two derived measures, never typed, on the economics or evidence view.

Scope

  • apps/majordomus-cli/src/economics
  • apps/majordomus-cli/src/ledger.rs
  • docs/ECONOMICS.md

Out of scope

  • Deciding which refusals were wrong (reported as candidates)

Dependencies

None. This issue is a root of the graph.

Acceptance criteria

  • A fixture ledger with an overridden refusal and a reverted completion yields one of each
  • Each rate carries its denominator and window

Validation

  • cargo test --manifest-path apps/majordomus-cli/Cargo.toml --lib economics

Evidence required

  • governance_error_rates

Evidence

None recorded. Every token above needs a command or an artifact behind it before this issue can be completed; narrative is refused.

Timeline

started
—
verified
—
completed
—

Those three fields, the evidence above and the state of the dependencies are all the status is made of. There is no status field to disagree with them.

Canonical record: .ai/repo/project/issues/I3126.yaml. Read it back with majordomus plan show I3126.

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